Moody’s has updated the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s credit opinion at ‘Aa3’ with a ‘stable’ outlook, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported on 1 December 2025, citing a statement from the National Debt Management Center (NDMC). The agency said the assessment reflects the Kingdom’s large and prosperous economy, improving institutional effectiveness, and a robust government balance sheet supported by substantial hydrocarbon resources.
Context and Background
According to the NDMC release summarizing Moody’s analysis, the Kingdom’s credit profile benefits from sizeable fiscal buffers and the scale of its economy within the G20. While Saudi Arabia remains exposed to cyclical declines in global oil prices and longer-term market shifts, the report notes that sustained progress in economic and fiscal diversification is expected, over time, to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons and mitigate exposure to oil-market volatility.
The update comes as Saudi Arabia continues to implement broad-based reforms that strengthen public finance management, enhance regulatory frameworks, and deepen private-sector participation. These reforms, which underpin institutional effectiveness, have been central to maintaining macroeconomic stability while advancing new growth engines in services, industry, and mining.
Key Details
Moody’s expects Saudi Arabia’s economic momentum to remain solid, with non-hydrocarbon activity continuing to be robust. The agency estimates real GDP growth of around 4.1% in 2025, rising to 4.5% in 2026. The outlook reflects the ongoing execution of large-scale projects, resilient private consumption, and the positive effects of record low unemployment on domestic demand and productivity.
Despite a backdrop of lower oil prices in 2025, the report highlights that the Kingdom’s diversification momentum has remained intact. Non-oil output expanded by an average of 4.5% year-on-year in the first two quarters of the year, led by services—especially tourism, wholesale and retail trade, and restaurants and hotels—as well as continued gains in mining and manufacturing. These sectoral trends underscore the increasing breadth of the non-oil economy.
Moody’s also emphasized the strength of the government’s balance sheet, which provides flexibility to navigate external shocks and sustain investment in transformative projects. Together with improving institutional frameworks, these factors contribute to the ‘Aa3’ rating level with a stable outlook.
Implications and Impact
The updated credit opinion signals continued confidence in Saudi Arabia’s policy trajectory and the resilience of its growth model. By affirming the Kingdom’s capacity to weather commodity cycles while advancing non-oil sectors, the assessment underscores the credibility of fiscal and economic reforms pursued in recent years. It also reflects the effectiveness of ongoing measures to broaden the tax base, rationalize expenditure, and prioritize high-impact investments.
For international stakeholders, the stable outlook points to policy continuity and predictable macroeconomic conditions as the Kingdom expands its services economy and industrial capabilities. The emphasis on tourism, retail, hospitality, mining, and manufacturing indicates sustained opportunities for cross-border partnerships, technology transfer, and capital formation aligned with national development priorities.
Regionally, the update reinforces Saudi Arabia’s role as a growth anchor and a driver of diversification across the Middle East. The Kingdom’s capacity to maintain robust non-oil activity alongside prudent public finances supports broader economic stability, trade integration, and development financing across neighboring markets.
Vision 2030 Alignment
The credit opinion update is closely aligned with the objectives of Vision 2030, which seeks to create a thriving, diversified economy powered by private enterprise, innovation, and global partnerships. By highlighting strong non-oil growth, record low unemployment, and the sustained execution of large-scale projects, the Moody’s assessment affirms the momentum of reforms that expand opportunity for citizens and investors. Looking ahead, continued strengthening of institutions, fiscal resilience, and sectoral diversification are expected to further embed stability and competitiveness—positioning Saudi Arabia to advance its long-term vision and deepen its constructive role in the global economy.