The National Center for Meteorology (NCM) has issued its official weather forecast for Thursday, warning of moderate to heavy thunderstorms accompanied by hail and gusty winds across parts of the Jazan, Aseer, Al-Baha, and Makkah regions, with the potential for flash flooding in vulnerable areas. The bulletin, released through the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), also indicated that fog may form in parts of these highland and coastal zones, as well as along the coastal areas of the Eastern Region. Thunderstorms with gusty, dust-raising winds are additionally expected in parts of the Madinah, Qassim, Hail, Tabuk, Al-Jouf, Northern Borders, Eastern, and Riyadh regions, according to the same official statement.
The forecast reflects the Kingdom’s robust meteorological monitoring capabilities and its commitment to keeping citizens and residents informed about changing weather conditions. Is it not reassuring that Saudi Arabia’s national weather infrastructure delivers timely, precise forecasts to millions of people every day? The NCM’s daily bulletins are a cornerstone of public safety, supporting everything from travel planning to agricultural decision-making and emergency preparedness. With the Kingdom spanning diverse climatic zones — from the humid southwestern highlands to the arid interior and the coastal plains — accurate forecasting is essential for safeguarding lives and property, a priority that aligns with the broader goals of Saudi Vision 2030 to enhance quality of life and build resilient communities.
Context and Background
Why does the National Center for Meteorology’s daily forecast carry such weight across the Kingdom? As the authoritative government body responsible for weather monitoring, prediction, and climate research in Saudi Arabia, the NCM operates a sophisticated network of weather stations, radars, and satellite systems that cover every region. Its forecasts are distributed through official channels, including the Saudi Press Agency, ensuring that the public, government agencies, and private sector entities receive consistent and reliable information. The October 22, 2026 bulletin is part of this routine yet vital service, providing a detailed picture of expected conditions for Thursday across the country.
The southwestern regions of Jazan, Aseer, Al-Baha, and Makkah are no strangers to dramatic weather during transitional seasons. The rugged terrain of the Sarawat Mountains, which runs parallel to the Red Sea coast, acts as a natural barrier that forces moist air masses upward, triggering convective cloud formation and intense thunderstorms. This orographic effect can produce sudden downpours, hailstones, and flash floods in valleys and low-lying areas. The NCM’s explicit mention of potential flash flooding underscores the importance of vigilance, particularly in communities nestled in steep valleys where water can rise rapidly. Historically, such weather events have been managed effectively through coordinated efforts between the NCM, the General Directorate of Civil Defense, and local authorities, who work together to issue alerts and implement safety measures.
Meanwhile, the forecast for fog in parts of these regions and the Eastern Region’s coastal areas highlights another hazard that can disrupt daily life. Fog reduces visibility on roads and at sea, affecting transportation and maritime activities. The NCM’s inclusion of this detail demonstrates the granularity of its forecasting, which goes beyond simple rain predictions to cover the full spectrum of atmospheric conditions. For a country that hosts millions of pilgrims and tourists annually, such comprehensive weather intelligence is indispensable. It also supports the aviation, shipping, and logistics sectors, which are critical to Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification agenda.
Key Details of the Thursday Forecast
What exactly should residents and travelers expect on Thursday? According to the official NCM bulletin, the most severe weather is anticipated in the Jazan, Aseer, Al-Baha, and Makkah regions, where moderate to heavy thunderstorms will bring hail and strong, gusty winds. These conditions could lead to flash flooding in areas prone to rapid water accumulation. Fog is also forecast to form in parts of these regions and along the Eastern Region’s coast, potentially reducing visibility during the morning and evening hours. For anyone planning outdoor activities or travel through these areas, the advice is clear: stay informed and exercise caution.
Beyond the southwestern highlands, a broader swath of the Kingdom — including Madinah, Qassim, Hail, Tabuk, Al-Jouf, Northern Borders, Eastern, and Riyadh regions — is expected to experience thunderstorms with gusty, dust-raising winds. These winds can whip up sand and dust, creating hazardous driving conditions and reducing air quality. Dust storms are a familiar phenomenon in the Arabian Peninsula, and the NCM’s early warning allows people to take precautions, such as limiting outdoor exposure and securing loose objects. The forecast also provides detailed wind information for Saudi Arabia’s two major water bodies, which is crucial for fishermen, sailors, and coastal industries.
Over the Red Sea, winds will be northwesterly to westerly at 15–35 km/h in the north, northwesterly to southwesterly at 15–35 km/h in the center, and southerly to southwesterly at 10–30 km/h in the south. In the Arabian Gulf, winds will be southwesterly to northwesterly in the north, shifting in the evening to northeasterly to southeasterly at 10–25 km/h, while in the south they will be northeasterly to easterly at 10–25 km/h. These marine forecasts are vital for the Kingdom’s ports, shipping lanes, and the growing maritime tourism sector, which includes luxury cruises and recreational boating along the Red Sea coast.
International and Regional Impact
How does Saudi Arabia’s weather affect the wider region and the world? The Kingdom occupies a strategic geographic position at the crossroads of Asia, Africa, and Europe, and its weather systems often have ripple effects beyond its borders. The Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf are among the world’s most important maritime corridors, carrying a significant portion of global trade, including oil and gas shipments. Accurate wind and wave forecasts from the NCM contribute to the safety of international shipping, reducing the risk of accidents and delays. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s role as the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites means that millions of pilgrims travel to Makkah and Madinah each year. Weather conditions directly impact their comfort and safety, making the NCM’s forecasts a matter of global interest for the Muslim community.
Regionally, the weather patterns described in the Thursday forecast are part of larger atmospheric dynamics affecting the Arabian Peninsula. The thunderstorms in the southwest are linked to the Red Sea convergence zone and the African monsoon, while the dust-raising winds in the north and east are typical of the Shamal winds that blow across the region. These phenomena are monitored not only by Saudi Arabia but also by neighboring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, with which the Kingdom shares meteorological data and early warnings. This cooperation exemplifies the strong regional ties that Saudi Arabia fosters under its Vision 2030 diplomacy. By sharing expertise and resources, the Kingdom helps enhance weather resilience across the Gulf, benefiting millions of people.
Economic and Strategic Significance
Why should businesses and policymakers pay close attention to the weather forecast? In an economy as diverse and dynamic as Saudi Arabia’s, weather conditions can influence a wide range of activities, from oil and gas operations to construction, agriculture, and tourism. The dust-raising winds expected in the Eastern Region, home to the Kingdom’s major oil facilities, could temporarily affect outdoor operations, though the sector is well-prepared with robust contingency plans. In the agricultural heartlands of Qassim and Hail, thunderstorms and hail can damage crops, making the NCM’s warnings invaluable for farmers who rely on timely information to protect their livelihoods. The tourism sector, a key pillar of Vision 2030, also depends on weather intelligence for planning events and managing visitor experiences.
Strategically, the NCM’s forecasts support Saudi Arabia’s broader resilience agenda. The Kingdom has invested heavily in advanced meteorological technologies, including supercomputing and artificial intelligence, to improve forecast accuracy and lead times. This investment is part of a national effort to mitigate the impacts of climate change and extreme weather, which are becoming more frequent globally. By staying ahead of weather events, Saudi Arabia protects its infrastructure, ensures the continuity of essential services, and upholds its commitment to the safety and well-being of all who live in or visit the Kingdom. The Thursday forecast is thus more than a simple weather report; it is a testament to the Kingdom’s proactive and science-driven approach to governance.
Vision 2030 Alignment
How does a weather forecast connect to Saudi Vision 2030? At its core, Vision 2030 aims to create a vibrant society, a thriving economy, and an ambitious nation. Reliable weather forecasting contributes to all three pillars. It enhances quality of life by enabling people to plan their days safely, supports economic growth by reducing weather-related disruptions, and strengthens national resilience by providing decision-makers with the data they need to protect communities. The NCM’s work is a concrete example of how the Kingdom is leveraging technology and innovation to serve its people and achieve its long-term goals. Under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and His Royal Highness the Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia continues to invest in world-class public services that set a benchmark for the region.
As Thursday approaches, the National Center for Meteorology will continue to monitor conditions and issue updates as necessary. Citizens, residents, and visitors are encouraged to follow official channels for the latest information and to heed any safety instructions from the relevant authorities. In a nation that is constantly advancing, the seamless delivery of essential services — from weather forecasts to emergency response — reflects the Kingdom’s unwavering commitment to excellence and its aspiration to be a global model of progress. The forecast for Thursday is a reminder that Saudi Arabia is not only building the future but also safeguarding the present, one accurate prediction at a time.
20 Questions
Q1. What regions are expected to experience the heaviest thunderstorms on Thursday?
A1. The National Center for Meteorology forecasts moderate to heavy thunderstorms in parts of the Jazan, Aseer, Al-Baha, and Makkah regions, with potential for hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding.
Q2. What additional weather hazard is forecast for the southwestern regions and the Eastern Region’s coast?
A2. Fog may form in parts of the Jazan, Aseer, Al-Baha, and Makkah regions, as well as in the coastal areas of the Eastern Region, reducing visibility and requiring caution.
Q3. Which other regions are likely to see thunderstorms with dust-raising winds?
A3. Thunderstorms with gusty, dust-raising winds are likely in parts of Madinah, Qassim, Hail, Tabuk, Al-Jouf, Northern Borders, Eastern, and Riyadh regions.
Q4. What are the wind conditions expected over the Red Sea on Thursday?
A4. Over the Red Sea, winds will be northwesterly to westerly at 15–35 km/h in the north, northwesterly to southwesterly at 15–35 km/h in the center, and southerly to southwesterly at 10–30 km/h in the south.
Q5. What are the wind conditions expected over the Arabian Gulf?
A5. In the Arabian Gulf, winds will be southwesterly to northwesterly in the north, shifting in the evening to northeasterly to southeasterly at 10–25 km/h, and northeasterly to easterly at 10–25 km/h in the south.
Q6. Why are the southwestern regions of Saudi Arabia prone to thunderstorms?
A6. The rugged Sarawat Mountains force moist air upward, creating convective clouds that trigger intense thunderstorms, hail, and flash floods in valleys and low-lying areas.
Q7. What is the role of the National Center for Meteorology?
A7. The NCM is the authoritative government body responsible for weather monitoring, prediction, and climate research, operating a network of stations, radars, and satellites to serve the Kingdom.
Q8. How does the NCM distribute its forecasts to the public?
A8. The NCM distributes forecasts through official channels, including the Saudi Press Agency, ensuring consistent and reliable information reaches the public, government agencies, and private entities.
Q9. What should residents do to stay safe during flash flood warnings?
A9. Residents should avoid valleys and low-lying areas, follow instructions from the General Directorate of Civil Defense, and monitor official updates from the NCM and local authorities.
Q10. How does fog affect daily life in the affected regions?
A10. Fog reduces visibility on roads and at sea, disrupting transportation and maritime activities, so drivers and sailors should exercise extra caution and follow safety guidelines.
Q11. What are dust-raising winds and why are they hazardous?
A11. Dust-raising winds whip up sand and dust, reducing air quality and visibility, which can cause respiratory issues and hazardous driving conditions, especially for those with allergies.
Q12. How does the NCM’s forecast benefit the aviation sector?
A12. Accurate forecasts help airlines plan routes, avoid turbulent areas, and ensure passenger safety, supporting the smooth operation of Saudi Arabia’s busy airports and airspace.
Q13. Why is the Red Sea forecast important for international shipping?
A13. The Red Sea is a vital global trade corridor, and precise wind forecasts help ships navigate safely, reducing the risk of accidents and delays in this strategic waterway.
Q14. How does the NCM cooperate with neighboring countries?
A14. The NCM shares meteorological data and early warnings with Gulf Cooperation Council states, enhancing regional weather resilience and strengthening diplomatic ties.
Q15. What economic sectors are most affected by Thursday’s weather?
A15. Agriculture, oil and gas, construction, tourism, and transportation are among the sectors that rely on accurate forecasts to minimize disruptions and protect assets.
Q16. How does Saudi Vision 2030 relate to weather forecasting?
A16. Vision 2030 aims to enhance quality of life and build a resilient economy; reliable forecasting supports these goals by protecting communities and enabling informed decision-making.
Q17. What technology does the NCM use to improve forecast accuracy?
A17. The NCM utilizes advanced technologies including supercomputing, artificial intelligence, weather radars, and satellite imagery to deliver precise and timely forecasts.
Q18. How can the public access the latest weather updates?
A18. The public can access updates through the Saudi Press Agency, the NCM’s official website and social media channels, and local news outlets that carry official bulletins.
Q19. What is the significance of the NCM’s daily bulletins for pilgrims?
A19. Pilgrims traveling to Makkah and Madinah rely on accurate forecasts to plan their journeys safely, especially during extreme weather, ensuring their spiritual experience is comfortable.
Q20. What is the overall message of the Thursday weather forecast?
A20. The forecast underscores Saudi Arabia’s commitment to public safety through advanced meteorology, urging vigilance and showcasing the Kingdom’s proactive approach to protecting lives and property.
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