FMF2024 Report: $5.4 Trillion Mineral Investment Needed by

The Future Minerals Forum (FMF) has released its FMF2024 Report, “Shaping the Future of Minerals,” which projects that global capital investment of US$5.4 trillion will be required between 2024 and 2035 to sustain and expand mining and processing facilities essential to the global energy transition. Released in Riyadh and reported by the Saudi Press Agency, the report represents one of the most comprehensive assessments of the mineral supply challenges facing the world as demand for critical minerals accelerates. The findings will shape discussions at the fourth edition of the Future Minerals Forum, scheduled for January 14–16, 2025, in the Saudi capital under the theme “Delivering Impact.”

The report arrives at a pivotal moment for the global mining ecosystem, as governments and industries race to secure the raw materials needed for renewable energy technologies, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing. According to Ali Al-Mutairi, Executive Director of the Future Minerals Forum, the required investment is nearly equivalent to the combined GDP of Japan and Spain — a figure that underscores both the scale of the challenge and the magnitude of the opportunity for mineral-rich nations. The FMF2024 Report draws on insights from internationally recognized experts across leading institutions, including CRU, Wood Mackenzie, Global AI, and Clareo-DPI, positioning Saudi Arabia at the center of the global conversation on mineral supply and energy transition strategy.

Context and Background

Why has the global mining sector reached a critical inflection point, and what does it mean for the energy transition? The FMF2024 Report, produced by the Future Minerals Forum in partnership with leading industry think tanks, provides authoritative analysis of the structural challenges facing mineral supply chains worldwide. The report reveals that capital investment requirements for 2024–2035 represent an increase of US$500 billion over the previous decade (2012–2023), signaling that the pace of investment must accelerate significantly to meet projected demand for minerals essential to decarbonization technologies.

The report features contributions from prominent voices in the minerals sector, including Mark Cutifani, Chairman of Vale Base Metals, and Dr. Michelle Foss, Fellow of Energy at the Baker Institute at Rice University. These experts explore the contribution of minerals to society, the value proposition of the sector for supplier countries, resource depletion concerns, and the need for new forms of partnership to unlock funding. The analysis also addresses how the benefits of mining can be equitably shared with host countries and communities, while confronting perceptions of mining that can reduce societal acceptance and hamper investment.

Saudi Arabia’s hosting of the Future Minerals Forum reflects the Kingdom’s growing role as a convener of global dialogue on mineral supply and a strategic player in the broader energy transition. The Super Region — encompassing the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa — holds significant untapped mineral potential that could drive the global transition, but realizing that potential requires coordinated investment, policy frameworks, and international cooperation.

Key Details and Findings

What specific commodities will drive the bulk of investment, and where will capital flows be directed? According to the report, more than 90 percent of the mass moved in global mining involves coal, iron ore, copper, and gold. Over 70 percent of total capital will be needed for these four commodities, with roughly 75 percent of that capital dedicated to sustaining existing assets rather than developing new ones. The steel value chain alone is estimated to require approximately US$1.6 trillion in sustaining capital expenditure.

For some critical minerals, the mining phase generates the majority of value for host countries. The report notes that 70 percent of the value generated from cobalt occurs at the mining stage, 68 percent for graphite, and 54 percent for lithium. These figures highlight the importance of developing robust mining sectors in resource-rich nations to capture value and drive economic development.

Regions including Asia Pacific, India, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa will require over 40 percent of total capital investment, reflecting a significant shift in capital flows toward emerging markets. Additionally, the report projects that production of cathode materials, battery cells, and battery recycling could generate around US$800 billion in annual revenue by 2040, creating substantial opportunities for countries that move up the value chain.

Ionut Lazar, Principal Consultant at CRU, emphasized the collaborative imperative: “Collaboration across sectors is essential to meet global decarbonization targets – it cannot be achieved by a single entity. It is a global, multi-stakeholder challenge that requires strategic collaboration, especially if we want to move at pace and achieve the desired scale.”

International and Regional Impact

How will the projected investment reshape global supply chains and economic relationships? The FMF2024 Report makes clear that meeting the US$5.4 trillion investment requirement will demand unprecedented cooperation between governments, mining companies, financial institutions, and local communities. Mark Cutifani, Chairman of Vale Base Metals, underscored this point: “In the end, partnerships for shared, durable value creation and commitment to supporting commercial frameworks can go a long way toward meeting and exceeding key stakeholder expectations.”

The shift of capital flows toward emerging markets represents a significant geopolitical and economic development. Countries in Asia Pacific, India, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa stand to benefit from increased investment, but only if they establish policies centered on GDP growth, job creation, and export enhancement. Patrick Barnes, Head of Metals and Mining Consulting at Wood Mackenzie, cautioned: “Value addition can provide countries with a range of well-known benefits: increased GDP, more fiscal revenue from a larger tax base, increased export earnings from higher-value products, and creation of direct and indirect jobs. But countries cannot afford to proceed blindly. Their plans have to take into account the real market dynamics, costs and benefits if they want to compete for investment and actually realize value.”

The report also highlights the role of government and industrial policy in building shared value. Peter Bryant, Co-Founder and Board Chair of the Development Partner Institute and Board Chair of Clareo, noted: “To date, the minerals industry has not prioritized shared prosperity effectively, resulting in a breakdown of trust with governments and local communities. However, the industry is at a turning point. Companies are taking on the responsibility of creating shared value, collaborating with new partners and at a deeper level. Government plays a key role in creating shared value by providing the springboards to investment and not being overly prescriptive.”

Dr. Michelle Michot Foss of the Baker Institute added: “While the mining industry can do much to help build and boost local and regional benefits, responsibilities lie with government jurisdictions to ensure that benefits linked to economic rents – revenue streams from taxes and royalties – are allocated in ways that build trust.”

Economic and Strategic Significance

What does the scale of required investment mean for Saudi Arabia and the broader region? The Kingdom’s convening of the Future Minerals Forum positions it as a central node in the global minerals ecosystem, bridging producers, investors, and policymakers. The Super Region’s untapped mineral potential, combined with Saudi Arabia’s financial capacity and strategic location, creates a unique opportunity to shape the future of mineral supply in ways that support both economic diversification and global decarbonization.

Richard Rothenberg, CEO of Global AI Corporation, emphasized the governance dimension: “As the demand for critical minerals continues to grow, policymakers and investors should prioritize sustainable practices, community engagement, and transparent governance to ensure long-term success and positive public perception.” This perspective aligns with the report’s emphasis on building trust and ensuring that mining delivers tangible benefits to host communities.

The report’s findings have direct implications for Saudi Arabia’s own mineral development ambitions. The Kingdom has identified mining as a key pillar of its economic diversification strategy, with estimates suggesting mineral wealth exceeding US$2.5 trillion. By hosting the Future Minerals Forum and supporting authoritative research through the FMF2024 Report, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a thought leader and investment destination in the global minerals sector.

The projected US$800 billion in annual revenue from cathode materials, battery cells, and battery recycling by 2040 represents a significant opportunity for countries that develop downstream processing capabilities. Saudi Arabia’s industrial strategy, including investments in electric vehicle manufacturing and battery production, aligns with this value-addition trajectory.

Vision 2030 Alignment

How does the Future Minerals Forum and its findings support Saudi Arabia’s long-term transformation? The FMF2024 Report and the upcoming Forum in January 2025 exemplify the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 objectives of economic diversification, international engagement, and leadership in strategic sectors. Mining has been identified as the third pillar of Saudi industry alongside oil and petrochemicals, with the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources driving efforts to attract investment, streamline regulation, and develop the sector’s full potential.

The Forum’s theme, “Delivering Impact,” reflects the Kingdom’s commitment to translating dialogue into action. By bringing together high-level officials from governments, mining companies, financial institutions, research centers, and universities, the event aims to catalyze partnerships and investment decisions that will shape the global minerals landscape for years to come. Saudi Arabia’s role as host underscores its emergence as a global hub for strategic industries and a bridge between resource-rich nations and the capital markets that can unlock their potential.

As the world confronts the twin challenges of meeting mineral demand and achieving decarbonization targets, the FMF2024 Report provides a roadmap for the investment and collaboration required. Saudi Arabia, through the Future Minerals Forum, is not only contributing authoritative analysis but also creating the platform for the international cooperation that will define the next decade of mineral supply and energy transition. The Kingdom’s leadership in this space reflects its broader vision of a diversified, knowledge-driven economy that plays a constructive role in global challenges.

20 Questions

Q1. What is the FMF2024 Report?

A1. The FMF2024 Report, titled “Shaping the Future of Minerals,” is a comprehensive analysis released by the Future Minerals Forum in partnership with leading industry think tanks. It provides critical insights into creating shared value across the mining ecosystem and addresses challenges facing global mineral supply.

Q2. How much capital investment is needed for mining by 2035?

A2. According to the FMF2024 Report, capital investment of US$5.4 trillion will be required between 2024 and 2035 to sustain and expand global mining and processing facilities. This represents a US$500 billion increase over the previous decade.

Q3. When and where will the fourth Future Minerals Forum take place?

A3. The fourth edition of the Future Minerals Forum will be held in Riyadh from January 14 to 16, 2025. The event will convene high-level officials from governments, mining companies, financial institutions, research centers, and universities under the theme “Delivering Impact.”

Q4. What commodities account for most of the mass moved in mining?

A4. More than 90 percent of the mass moved in global mining involves coal, iron ore, copper, and gold. Over 70 percent of total capital will be needed for these four commodities, with roughly 75 percent dedicated to sustaining existing assets.

Q5. Who is Ali Al-Mutairi and what did he say about the report?

A5. Ali Al-Mutairi is the Executive Director of the Future Minerals Forum. He stated that the report provides authoritative content tackling tough issues facing mineral supply and aims to spark debate at FMF in January 2025.

Q6. What is the Super Region mentioned in the report?

A6. The Super Region encompasses the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. According to the report, it has significant untapped mineral potential that can drive the global energy transition, though substantial capital investment is required to realize it.

Q7. How much investment is needed for the steel value chain?

A7. The steel value chain alone is estimated to require about US$1.6 trillion in sustaining capital expenditure. This reflects the scale of investment needed to maintain and expand existing iron ore and steel-related mining operations globally.

Q8. Which regions will require over 40 percent of total capital investment?

A8. Regions including Asia Pacific, India, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa will require over 40 percent of total capital investment. This reflects a significant shift in capital flows toward emerging markets in the coming decade.

Q9. What percentage of cobalt value is generated at the mining stage?

A9. According to the report, 70 percent of the value generated from cobalt occurs at the mining stage. For graphite, the figure is 68 percent, and for lithium, it is 54 percent, highlighting the importance of mining for host country value capture.

Q10. What revenue potential exists for battery materials by 2040?

A10. Production of cathode materials, battery cells, and battery recycling could generate around US$800 billion in annual revenue by 2040. This represents a significant opportunity for countries developing downstream processing capabilities.

Q11. Who is Mark Cutifani and what did he emphasize?

A11. Mark Cutifani is Chairman of Vale Base Metals. He emphasized that partnerships for shared, durable value creation and commitment to supporting commercial frameworks can help meet and exceed key stakeholder expectations in the mining sector.

Q12. What did Ionut Lazar say about collaboration?

A12. Ionut Lazar, Principal Consultant at CRU, stated that collaboration across sectors is essential to meet global decarbonization targets. He noted it cannot be achieved by a single entity and requires strategic collaboration to move at pace and scale.

Q13. What benefits does value addition provide to countries?

A13. According to Patrick Barnes of Wood Mackenzie, value addition provides increased GDP, more fiscal revenue from a larger tax base, increased export earnings from higher-value products, and creation of direct and indirect jobs. However, countries must consider real market dynamics.

Q14. What did Peter Bryant say about government’s role?

A14. Peter Bryant, Co-Founder and Board Chair of the Development Partner Institute, said government plays a key role in creating shared value by providing springboards to investment and not being overly prescriptive. He noted the industry is at a turning point.

Q15. What did Dr. Michelle Foss emphasize about government responsibilities?

A15. Dr. Michelle Michot Foss, Fellow in Energy and Minerals at the Baker Institute, emphasized that responsibilities lie with government jurisdictions to ensure benefits linked to economic rents, such as taxes and royalties, are allocated in ways that build trust.

Q16. What did Richard Rothenberg say about sustainable practices?

A16. Richard Rothenberg, CEO of Global AI Corporation, stated that as demand for critical minerals grows, policymakers and investors should prioritize sustainable practices, community engagement, and transparent governance to ensure long-term success and positive public perception.

Q17. What organizations contributed insights to the FMF2024 Report?

A17. The report features insights from internationally recognized advocates including Mark Cutifani of Vale Base Metals and Dr. Michelle Foss of the Baker Institute, as well as leading experts from CRU, Wood Mackenzie, Global AI, and Clareo-DPI.

Q18. What is the theme of the fourth Future Minerals Forum?

A18. The fourth edition of the Future Minerals Forum will be held under the theme “Delivering Impact.” The theme reflects the Forum’s focus on translating dialogue into actionable outcomes for the global minerals sector.

Q19. How does the report address perceptions of mining?

A19. The report addresses how perceptions of mining can reduce societal acceptance and hamper investment. It emphasizes the need for building trust with governments and local communities through shared value creation and transparent governance practices.

Q20. How does the Future Minerals Forum align with Saudi Vision 2030?

A20. The Future Minerals Forum aligns with Saudi Vision 2030 by supporting economic diversification, international engagement, and leadership in strategic sectors. Mining is identified as a key pillar of Saudi industry, and the Forum positions the Kingdom as a global convener on mineral supply issues.

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